Stocks like McDonald’s Corporation and UnitedHealth Group Incorporated are drawing investor attention with analyst forecasts and strategic outlooks as year-end approaches.
Why investors pay attention to these two at year-end
The “year-end” forces that matter
Every
By late December, trades can be influenced as much by flows and positioning as by fundamentals:
Window dressing: Funds prefer holding recognizable “quality” names into statements.
Rebalancing: After a year of sector rotations, portfolios rebalance to targets (healthcare and consumer defensives tend to perform well when investors seek stability).
Tax Loss Harvesting: Selling Losers to Infuse the ‘Safer’ Winners.
Guidance visibility: Investors pay up for companies where next-year drivers feel less uncertain than the market.
MCD and UNH are considered popular stocks because they are categorized among others that investors view as a defensive type of growth due to
McDonald’s: global reach + franchise business model + pricing power + ‘value’ pricing when consumers turn Conservative.
UnitedHealth: Huge scale in insurance business and diversified earnings from Optum, as well as strong runway fueled by aging demographics, yet also faces risk related to policies and utilization.
2) McDonald’s (MCD): what analysts are predicting and why
A) The main thesis that analysts employ
The majority of “core” MCD models can be reduced to these five levers:
Comparables or ”comps”) – Are the existing stores growing?
Unit growth – number of new restaurants, net of closings.
Franchise mix/margin structure – the franchised stores generate a more stable, high-margin royalty income stream.
Digital, delivery, loyalty – Higher freq. + More targeted communications.
Enhancement of value + menu innovation – Protecting traffic without harming margins.
The end of 2025: the “attention” is mainly due to the fact that comps have stabilized and re-accelerated, and the fact that mgmt keeps touting the value + marketing + digital playbook.
B) What recent results signaled
McDonald’s reported its financial highlights for Q3 of its fiscal
Comparable sales worldwide +3.6%
Strong growth from all segments (U.S. businesses, Intern oper markets, and Intern developmental lic markets)
A. McDonald’s
That’s significant because the comp cycle is the “health check” that the market likes the best. When comps are strong around the world, analysts tend to feel more confidence in their forecasts (although Q1 EPS numbers may bounce around due to expenses, currencies, and timing issues).
C) Strategy: expansion + “modern McDonald’s engine”
Two strategic pillars that investors always fall back on:
1) Aggressive restaurant expansion
McDonald’s has spoken about quick expansion to 50,000 by 2027 (this represents an expansion spurt by historical standards).
In its filings with the SEC, McDonald’s has also described specific development plans over the next term—to say, approximately 2,200 new restaurants worldwide for the year 2025, a bit over 4% unit growth (net of closures).
Why it matters to analysts: Unit growth is a “volume” lever, and it does not require heroic assumption of same-store growth rates. The fact that the company is able to open new stores at attractive returns, and, in particular, if it is a franchised store model, will improve earnings visibility.
2) Digital / loyalty as a structural growth driver
In the highlights for Q3 of FY2025, the key point McDonald’s emphasized is the very big sales volume associated with their loyalty program, which it reported as “systemwide sales to loyalty members.”
McDonald’s Corporation
Analysts appreciate loyalty because it has many benefits, including:
increase the number of visits,
improve personalization,
supporting “value” offers without discounting everyone,
and create switching costs (habit & ecosystem).
D) What “analyst forecasts” often look like for MCD
Next step:
Depending on data source and time, you will see:
Having a broadly positive rating and
a clustered price-target range that suggests a moderate upside, with outliers at both extremes.
How does it apply in year-end reporting:
In a risk-off environment, MCD can function as a bond proxy, whereby investors pay for stability.
If risk-on conditions exist in the market, MCD could still work; however, it could trail the beta-growth phase.
E) What could drive MCD in the next 2-3 quarters
Potential upside catalysts
Price
- Continued positive comps (especially U.S. traffic stability
Input cost environment — better than feared (labor & commodities
Effective execution on bundles and preserving the margin.
Faster growth in high-margin franchised revenue as unit numbers increase.
Key risks analysts are pricing into
A price war, on the hand, may see “value” remain intact but margins shrink.
The slow growth in the overall consumer market could impact the discretionary elements (desserts
FX Volatility (MCD is Global).
Risk of execution in rapid expansion—many stores being opened can strain execution.
3) UnitedHealth (UNH): why it’s trending and what financial analysts are tracking
MCD = “steady execution”
UNH = “large opportunity with real controversy/uncertainty” – and that makes people look there near year end.
A) The big picture: UNH is not just insurance
UnitedHealth is usually viewed as comprising two biggest engines:
UnitedHealthcare (Insurance – employer and Medicare Advantage plans, Medicare Supplement and Medicare
Optum (care delivery services, pharmacy benefits management through OptumRx, analytics & technology)
All these products combined are why many investors historically considered UNH “healthcare’s compounder.” However, 2025 has proven more challenging in terms of utilization, reimbursement, and scrutiny.
No single universally applicable model fits all service organizations and all types of crisis
In fact, according to their own filings, UnitedHealth has reiterated and adjusted its outlook higher for 2025, and has repeatedly referenced a plan to return to earnings growth in 2026.
According to Q3 FY2025 data:
Q3 2025 revenue of approximately $113.2B (+12% YoY
raised guidance for full-year 2025 earnings (net EPS and adjusted EPS floors).
Why that matters now: “Year-end investors are always looking for the next narrative,” said one analyst. If the market is thinking 2026 is going to be a year of recovery, the stock can move before the recovery is visible in the numbers.
C) The underlying operational challenge: medical cost trend/ utilization
A big headwind within the managed care space has been the increased medical utilization and cost trends, primarily within Medicare Advantage. In its investor presentation, UnitedHealth has mentioned the Medicare Advantage medical cost trend to be around ~7.5% for the year 2025.
To simplify:
The faster the increase in costs over prices, the tighter the margins will be squeezed.
Revenue may increase but profits may decline.
That is why you can see analysts predicting robust top-line growth but then speculating on earnings power.
D) Why UNH got extra attention in December 2025: audits and process changes
Reuters reported that UnitedHealth made major promises of changes in its operation following outside audits of its health services and pharmacy benefits units.
“The following are the key
23 action plans
Over 50% targeted for completion by end of 2025, and completion will take place in early 2026
Issues involved documentation and process standardization in programs like HouseCalls, which may influence Medicare Advantage payments, as reported.
UnitedHealth has a page dedicated to action plans progress (timeline to the end of 2025/end of Q1 2026).
Why investors care:
“
A more reassuring approach comes from the bulls’ view that “clean-up + controls + rebuild trust = de-risk the story.”
Bears are concerned about the potential risks associated with ongoing investigations and/or scrutiny and the cost of remediation.
E) Analyst Forecasts and Price Targets: What They Imply
Using Yahoo Finance data, UNH reflects the following:
an average price target of around the high $300s (with a broad low-to-high range) and an overall positive recommendation profile.
On a side note, a narrative about Yahoo post-results noted a 2026 revenue consensus number in the neighborhood of the mid-$400B range (e.g. around $459.6B in that particular article).
How to understand this:
The Street is frequently quoted as follows: “Top line likely grows; the debate is margins and normalization.”
“If the trends on utilization normalize, and pricing helps to close gaps, an earnings recovery might happen sooner rather than later.”
If not, then revenue growth may look good while simultaneously causing a company’s stock to perform inadequately because of profit uncertainties.
F) What could drive UNH in early 2026
Potential upside catalysts
Potential
Clear evidence of the stabilization of utilization and easing pressures on MLR.
Increased confidence that earnings growth in 2026 recovers to management guidance.
Progress updates on the audit action plans and operational fixes.
Better-than-feared Medicare Advantage dynamics (pricing discipline & risk adjustment).
Major risks
Increased regulatory or legal challenges; headlines may pose valuation floors.
Utilization remains above priced markets → margins continue to be squeezed.
Government reimbursement/quality bonus dynamics turn against the industry (broader industry trend, not specific to UNH).
4) A year-end comparison of MCD vs UNH: A contrasting investor mindset
How MCD may appear attractive at present
Visible strategy + execution (comps are improving, global scale maintained).
“Second engine” plans for expansion offer something more than similar companies.
SEC
Consumer defense play that can stand the test of time if Macro fears come back. This stock is an ideal defensive
What makes UNH attractive at this juncture
UN Stock can re-rate if 2026 recovery becomes believable. There are indications from the guidance and commentary that the outlook or trajectory of improvement continues into 2026. UnitedHealth Group 2 Reuters +2 Analysts still view targets as having significant upside potential, although there’s considerable variation. Yahoo Finance What they’re not the same “kind” of defensive MCD Risk Profile: primarily macro, competition, margin. Tends to be less dynamic. Risk profile at UNH includes utilization, policy, and investigation headlines. Could fill a gap on news. So, in year-end positioning: MCD is frequently employed as an anchoring point. “UNH is essentially a turnaround investment,” says one Continental analyst. “Large franchise, but the public’s confidence must be restored.”
“The 5) An actionable list: what you should watch next (keeping it simple) For McDonald’s (MCD World comps next quarter, and how well traffic holds. McDonald’s Corporation Comparative data: Restaurant openings, compared with plan. SEC Comments on value strategy, whether it’s driving profitable traffic. For UnitedHealth (UNH Medical Cost Trends & Utilization Normalization – Update. UnitedHealth Group 1 Any information available about the status of audit remediation. UnitedHealth Group +1 Management’s storyline on growth plans in 2026, if reiterated.
